The State of Lupine Knowledge

2026-10-14 · computed live from the lupine2 graph (2026-10-14 00:21:08 build) · method: docs/ANALYSIS-2026-10-14.md
27,886documents
2,396origin commits
40,474graph edges
146claims
6.8%claims with evidence

1 · The program stalled three weeks ago

Weekly origin commits with 4-week rolling mean — volume fell 558 (Jul) → 440 (Aug) → 69 (Sep). Last commit: 2026-10-11.
5611316926-0426-1826-2226-2626-3026-3426-38

2 · Structure without proof

The wiki holds 146 claims; only 10 carry an evidence edge. The largest claim — the 36 KB Ontological Atlas — is orphaned.
6.8%of claims carry evidence
Every cell is one claim (146); lit cells carry evidence (10): The Lupine Ontological Atlas — machine-readable export — 36,409 charsLupine Method — 2,455 charsFormal proof library — 2,309 charsRare events / barriers — 2,255 charsReference-functional ceiling — 2,210 charsSystematic PES softening — 2,184 charsBenchmark–reality gap — 2,179 charsWrong fidelity: PBE labels where SCAN/hybrid needed — 2,116 charsExtreme conditions — 2,101 charsNo in-simulation trust signal — 2,099 charsEquilibrium-only pretraining bias — 2,088 charsMissing long-range physics — 2,079 charsMissing electronic degrees of freedom — 2,067 charsFusion long game — 2,032 charsBarrier wedge — 2,004 charsThe 90:10 fidelity wedge — 1,994 charsThe inherited floor — 1,984 charsThe validation-first wedge — 1,974 charsEarth-abundant halide solid electrolytes — 1,968 charsLead-free perovskite absorbers — 1,967 charsA-Lab 41 'novel' compounds (Nature 2023) — 1,954 charsElectrochemical ammonia catalysts — 1,954 chars'AI-assisted researchers discover 44% more materials' — 1,953 charsRP2 — 1,951 charsCobalt-free LMR cathodes — 1,945 charsThe level playing field — 1,938 charsRP1 — 1,930 charsMOF sorbents for DAC — 1,930 charsChina storage projection — 1,926 charsGNoME 2.2M crystals / 381k 'stable' — 1,925 charsRP3 — 1,922 charstransfersTo — 1,921 charsinheritsErrorFrom — 1,920 charsML water-stability MOF classifiers (83%/71%) — 1,919 charsConventional steels, simple metals, commodity ceramics — 1,897 charsCSH 2020 & Lu-hydride 2023 room-Tc claims — 1,895 charsDemonstrated in principle (mechanism-level or adjacent-domain; matched-budget evidence lacking) — 1,894 charsTwo or more independent demonstrations on the target observable at useful scale — 1,887 charsTritium balance — 1,880 charsSystematic-error surgery + experiment anchoring — 1,872 charsDFT-guided electrochemical N₂-reduction literature — 1,868 charsMany-species data wall: composition space unlearnable to threshold — 1,867 charsCompute-ladder gating at top (INCITE readiness; ALCC funding prerequisite) — 1,864 charsLK-99 room-temperature superconductivity (2023) — 1,864 charsHydride compute share — 1,862 charsNEB barrier headline — 1,861 charsamplifiedBy — 1,860 charspartnersWith — 1,860 charsevidencedBy — 1,857 charsMulti-fidelity Δ-learning — 1,851 charsInstrument disappearance (OCED zeroed; SBIR lapsed 195 days) — 1,849 charsREE-lapse/export-control shock: 0.1% rule auto-revives 2026-11-10 — 1,840 charsadmittedBy — 1,840 charsSolo-execution/credibility: one failed prediction is existential — 1,839 charsclearsGate — 1,838 charsNon-equilibrium pretraining — 1,836 charsFidelity ceiling: Δ-learning asymptotes below hybrid accuracy — 1,836 charsFoundation-model commoditization closing the wedge early — 1,836 charsQuantum-computing hype; business plan; lobbying — 1,835 charsNo demonstration on the target observable — 1,832 charsconstrainedBy — 1,828 charsmeasuredOn — 1,827 charsgatesOn — 1,827 charshasSystematicFloor — 1,826 charscorrects — 1,826 charsSingle authoritative source; hedged inline; never thesis-load-bearing alone — 1,825 charsBio/pharma, small-molecule discovery — 1,822 charsfalsifiedBy — 1,822 charsdemonstratedBy — 1,822 charsreadinessJudgedBy — 1,817 charsfunds — 1,817 charsdeploysBeside — 1,813 charscountsAsOneWith — 1,812 charskilledBy — 1,812 charsgatedBy — 1,811 charssequencedIn — 1,810 charsForecast; dependent on time, cost, market, or policy variables — 1,809 charscorrectedBy — 1,807 charsimpossibleUnder — 1,807 charsDemonstrated elsewhere, not yet in this class or observable — 1,806 charslabeledBy — 1,806 charstrainedOn — 1,805 charsverifiedBy — 1,801 charsinterventionSize — 1,795 charsAt least two independent evidence units concur — 1,794 charsabates — 1,794 charsAuthor's interpretation of the cited evidence — 1,792 charsisA — 1,788 charspartOf — 1,788 charsanchorsTo — 1,787 charsProposed; not yet demonstrated anywhere — 1,786 charsDirectly supported by the cited study — 1,784 charsmarkedAs — 1,784 charsClimate aggregate — 1,781 charsEpistemicMarker — 1,778 charsConfidenceGrade — 1,778 charsBibliographicResource — 1,778 charsBenchmarkDataset — 1,777 charsReadinessGrade — 1,777 charsMeasuredError — 1,776 charsCorrectionLever — 1,775 charsEvidenceUnit — 1,775 charsComputeLadder — 1,774 charsAcceptanceTest — 1,774 charsErrorEmblem — 1,774 charsSolvedTarget — 1,772 charsLupineMethod — 1,772 charsErrorType — 1,772 charsObservable — 1,771 charsFormalProof — 1,771 charsConflictRuling — 1,771 charsProgramFacility — 1,771 charsDiscoveryChain — 1,771 charsSkepticEpisode — 1,771 charsPolicyInstrument — 1,771 charsKillCriterion — 1,770 charsMaterialClass — 1,769 charsExcludedClass — 1,769 charsRoadmapPhase — 1,769 charsFundingProgram — 1,769 charsControlMeasure — 1,769 charsClimateTarget — 1,768 charsMethod — 1,767 charsSourceTier — 1,767 charsModel — 1,766 charsStageGate — 1,766 charsMaterial — 1,764 charsTimeGate — 1,763 charsClaim — 1,762 charsRisk — 1,761 charsAgent — 1,760 charsprospective hit-rate uplift — 1,751 charsERROR & PROOF — 1,747 charscomponent performance — 1,745 charsCOMPUTATION — 1,745 charsstability/durability — 1,744 charsCORRECTION — 1,744 charssimulation accuracy — 1,743 charsmanufacturability — 1,741 charsLIBRARY — 1,741 charsPROGRAM — 1,741 charsMATTER — 1,740 charstechnoeconomics — 1,739 charsWORLD — 1,739 charssynthesis — 1,733 charsPUB-1 shared DFT-anchor proof pack — published and verified — 1,025 chars

3 · The arc by repo and month

Where the energy went, and when it stopped. Feb–Mar are genuinely empty; October is the album sprint, not research.
2026-01 lupine: 926-0192026-04 lupine: 34926-043492026-05 lupine: 50526-055052026-06 lupine: 2432026-06 rhizo: 392026-06 science: 222026-06 ledger: 2626-063302026-07 lupine: 92026-07 rhizo: 2832026-07 science: 2252026-07 ledger: 4126-075582026-08 lupine: 292026-08 rhizo: 1462026-08 science: 1862026-08 ledger: 202026-08 hq: 422026-08 hermes-plugin: 162026-08 x402-demo: 126-084402026-09 lupine: 52026-09 rhizo: 262026-09 science: 292026-09 ledger: 12026-09 swarm-showcase: 826-09692026-10 lupine: 582026-10 rhizo: 472026-10 ledger: 3126-10136
● lupine ● rhizo ● science ● ledger ● hq ● hermes-plugin ● swarm-showcase ● x402-demo

4 · The fleet churns more than it completes

33,372 kanban events on the lupine board; completions are 1.6%. Mean 51.3 events per task; one task alone burned 1,842.
total events 33,372 heartbeat 13,056 39%respawn_guarded 6,150 18%claimed/spawned/reclaimed 8,418 timed_out 62 failure-classcrashed 409 failure-classcompleted 518 1.6%

5 · The intent layer is an album, not a research program

Transcript prompts per week by tool — claude owns 90.1% and 13,656 of its prompts are dated October (the unseen burst). Top terms: vocal, verse, song, beat.
2026-25: kimi 6926-252026-26: kimi 262026-27: kimi 1032026-28: kimi 1402026-29: kimi 7126-292026-30: codex 592026-30: kimi 102026-31: codex 422026-33: codex 22026-33: kimi 832026-34: codex 442026-34: kimi 6926-342026-36: claude 202026-36: codex 22026-36: kimi 432026-37: claude 202026-37: kimi 642026-38: claude 3082026-38: kimi 2452026-39: claude 632026-39: codex 102026-39: kimi 34926-392026-40: claude 136512026-40: codex 202026-40: kimi 492026-41: kimi 47
● claude ● codex ● kimi

What this means

Generated 2026-10-14 00:48:29 by lupine2 states/mkreport.py · tailnet surface :8321 · data: graph DB + receipts + kanban events + wiki snapshot